Britain sets itself adrift BREXIT marks the end of Britain 43 year membership of the European Union (EU).
No state has left the EU since Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxemburg and the Netherlands founded the Community under the 1957 Treaty of Rome. Brexit had shocked global financial markets, seen the value of sterling collapse, shattered relations with Britain other 27 EU members, changed its prime minister, and jeopardised the continued integrity of the United Kingdom (UK). The shockwaves reverberated far beyond Europe. For the time being, the financial market turmoil has been addressed. Moves by the Bank of England to preserve financial stability have begun to settle nerves. Still, economic risks remain business confidence battered as many investors, await the emergence of new arrangements. The continuing uncertainty threatens to tip the economy into recession. As is the way with referendums, the deep dividing dilemma lies in understanding exactly what the Leave vote really means. After all, the Remain vote is singular, whereas the Leave vote is plural: not just simply a rejection of EU, but also a move against globalisation and migration that has eroded basic sovereignty, national identity and economic security. In essence, Brexit was a triple protest against surging immigration, the greed of London city banks in the face of the impact of widespread globalisation, and dysfunctional EU institutions. It signals the need for a new kind of globalisation to restore a sense of fairness opportunity for the disaffected working class who feel they have been left behind by globalisation. Given the complex nature of the issues involved in the referendum, it is now clear the UK was let down by serious lapses in leadership. to leave on the cards. Europe has been badly mismanaged in recent decades, to the point that its average unemployment is in double digits. One needs only cite the mismanagement of the series of Greek crises by self serving, short sighted leaders. The continuing euro zone turmoil arising from the tradition of muddling through the challenges it faces by kicking the can down the road to accommodate vested interests, was enough to put off UK voters. This also reflects the failure of UK leadership in the EU. > Lack of strategy the underlying pandora jewelry website goal of the Remain Leave groups is obvious. But vision is not the pandora o charm same as strategy. While fervent eurosceptics had wished for a Leave their leaders failed to draw up a coherent, practical plan for withdrawal. As such, UK EU are now at the beginning of an extended period of uncertainty without a plan to unravel UK future connections with the EU. They broke it; they now own it. But without a viable plan, they are doomed to unguided confusion. Winging it is not a strategy. > Purposelessness: For the Remains, their leaders have no B They were caught flat footed. For the Leavers, it became, know what we are getting out of, but we just don know what we are getting into. So, there is utter confusion all round. A classic case study of bad management practice. Brexit closed one question and opened many more. What worrisome is that having won the prize of sovereignty but not knowing what to do with it, can make voters feel at a loss soon to turn into dismay, then remorse, and eventually anger! The reality is that Britain now looks set for political, social economic turmoil. >Teamwork: The formation of opposing diverse groups drawn from across the political spectrum, representing Remains Leavers post vast challenges for leadership. In management, scratch teams can do great work; but they are also the hardest to manage. Unfortunately, demagoguery and hypocrisy permeated both campaigns, intermingled with half truths outright lies yes, with the Pandora box wide truly open. There was hardly any room for subtle analysis of the facts. Clear leadership was missing to separate the real issues from the as it grew ever louder. Leave campaign most prominent claim: sends a week to support EU budget; best to spend it on the NHS instead, was simply false. Yet, a poll showed 47% of voters believed it. In the end, common sense leadership went out of the window. In all, anniversary pandora charm the vote exposed the inability of the opposing teams to shape a real agenda for action. True leaders have the duty to conduct the sound that the chorus makes, rather than simply sing along. >Succession: Conventional wisdom has it that politicians often fumble on the transfer of power. Indeed, succession is almost always bloodier in politics than in business. Leadership disarray is still unfolding in the upcoming challenge against the incumbent Labour leadership (a reluctant Remain). After the vote, the reckoning! Leavers want to believe that Britain can continue to enjoy full access to EU single market and return immigration control from Europe by cutting the free movement of people between EU states. This combination is unlikely to be on offer by the EU. For Europe, free movement is not just policy or even one of mindset; it is a principle deeply enshrined in European law culture. For Europe, quid pro quo would be full acceptance of EU four freedoms: of movement of labour, capital, trade services; it also has to contribute to EU budget. Realistically, there are only two exit options. The Norway option: by joining the European Economic Area (EEA), currently comprising Norway, Iceland Liechtenstein, with unhindered access to EU single market. In return, it embraces EU four freedoms, especially free labour movement. It inflexible can negotiate a bit less market access for a bit more control of people movement. Indeed, there isn much to negotiate. Bilateral free trade (BFT) agreement with EU (much like what Canada is now negotiating with EU). enjoy the pandora bracelets and charms store locator existing ability to offer services throughout the EU without being subject to financial supervision in other EU nations. UK can enjoy free flow of goods some services nowhere close to what it now enjoys dominates. Not a good deal. The bargain will involve trade offs between passporting (by being in EEA) control over immigration (possible under BFT) but not both. Nor can it have a bit of both. Can cherry pick. In the end, it a political choice. Britain faces a tough Europe, whose stance is being hardened by the crisis within the union itself. In reality, EU knows that anti EU populism is on the rise across the continent, fuelled by migration, fiscal austerity and many years of economic stagnation in countries bordering the Mediterranean. Between 1Q and 1Q eurozone GDP rose by a mere 0.5%, while aggregate demand fell by 2.4%. Worse still, between 2007 and 2017, real GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 11% in Germany, stagnate in France, and fall by 8% in Spain and 11% in Italy. These dire outcomes are damaging. The EU (especially Germany) realises that any success for Brexit can fuel demand among other partners to also exit the EU. After all, the possible Frexit a French exit from the EU, has to be taken seriously. They fear for the very survival of the European project. Like it or not, Britain is already sidelined in Brussels. Make no mistake, high on EU priority is for the other 27 nations to preserve the integrity of the Union. Clearly, Britain needs a plan a road map to safeguard the nation future prosperity, by securing the closest possible economic co operation with EU; keep UK safe, also requiring close pan European collaboration; and seek domestic consent a clear mandate for a negotiating position over the future relationship with EU which will not be easy. Surely, Leavers cannot brush aside the large Remain votes in Scotland Northern Ireland the City of London. Negotiations will be complex and complicated. Triggering Article 50 to start negotiations is likely to require parliamentary consent. In focussing on the practicalities of trade, labour mobility and open markets, it must not lose sight of the bigger picture. Britain cannot keep the benefits without respecting EU rules. For each bit of gain secured over free labour movement, it has to trade off a bit of access to the single market. For Britain, its attractiveness as a destination for investment as an entry point to the EU market, is important. Immigration can be disruptive, but it has historically shown to be a source of prosperity social enrichment. In the end, what needed is a balanced British model to safeguard its future prosperity. There is no perfect solution. The dynamics of Brexit are difficult to predict mainly because much depends on the goodwill shown by other EU governments. In the end, it possible the final Brexit outcome may not be significantly far from what Remain wants. After all, the Brexit vote does not bind parliament parliament cannot bind its successors. Brexit didn specify what Leave actually meant. There are just too many moving parts. As options narrow, voters could suffer a severe fit of buyers remorse. Who knows? Brexit can be a threat to EU: (i) UK is a neighbour, a market, a financial hub, a security partner a link to the wider world. Given the right circumstances, free people movement may even be negotiable; (ii) Brexit is a precedent. EU recent failures lie inside its euro zone.
For EU, Brexit is either a nuisance or a wake up call for EU to serve as a true common market that promotes growth as well as competition innovation. The best outcome maximises the integration of UK Europe. The worse: raising of trade barriers in Trumpish style in order to back control.
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